June 2007

Similar Technologies Chase Different Markets

As DVB-RCS, IPoS, and DOCSIS-for-satellite continue to advance, there has been growing concern that three competing standards will slow the adoption of broadband satellite. Cable, DSL, and Wi-Fi CPE prices have fallen well below $100 through the use of high volume components, an accomplishment satellite will be challenged to repeat with each major provider using its own modem and terminal standard.

This report considers the future of broadband satellite in light of its internal battles, and considers :

- How likely is it that corporations and consumers will eventually use the same modulation and framing technologies?
- What marketing strategies are needed to maintain the price premium over terrestrial broadband services?
- How many U.S. households are in locations too sparsely populated to support WiMax?

In addition to examining population density break-even points between WiMax and broadband satellite, this report provides state-level addressable market data for Internet services provisioned through orbiting spacecraft.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 - The Technologies
1.1 Why Now? 
1.2 DSL Services are Exhausting their Supply of Fiber-Fed Remotes
1.3 Modulation, Multiplexing, and Multiple Access 
1.4 Application-Layer Differences
1.5 Consumers Can't Choose Equipment Suppliers, So Why Are Open Standards Needed?

Chapter 2 - The Economics
2.1 Premium Prices vs. Inexpensive Modems
2.2 Cheap Capital, Expensive Equipment
2.3 The 20/80 Rule 

Economic Charts and Addressable Market Analyses
Exhibit 1.1 - Hardware Price Declines, Top Two Providers
Exhibit 1.2 - Technology Comparison DOCSIS, DVB-RCS, IPoS
Exhibit 2.1 - Broadband Satellite vs. WiMax Subscribers
Exhibit 2.2 - Broadband Satellite Break-Even Density vs. Fixed WiMax
Exhibit 2.3 - Broadband Satellite Addressable Market by State